Key takeaways:

Odds of the CLARITY Act being signed into law in 2026 rose to 67% in May.
BTC price must hold $78,000-$79,000 as support for a bullish push to $84,000 or higher.
A 67% chance the CLARITY Act is signed into law in 2026

The CLARITY Act, a proposed US bill that would set clearer rules for how regulators oversee the crypto market and stablecoins, is scheduled for a Senate Banking Committee markup vote on Thursday.

Source: Cointelegraph

Prediction market traders say that there is a 67% chance that the CLARITY Act will be signed into law in 2026, according to Polymarket.

Odds of the CLARITY Act being signed into law in 2026. Source: Polymarket

Traders on rival site Kalshi price-in the odds of the Act becoming law before August and Dec. 31, 2026, at 62% and 67%, respectively.

If the CLARITY Act passes, it could clearly classify Bitcoin as a digital commodity under the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) oversight, reducing legal uncertainty for the industry and further legitimizing crypto in the US.

Bitcoin is expected to react positively, similar to the GENIUS Act signed in July 2025, which provided the first major US stablecoin framework. Bitcoin was already trading near all-time highs and climbed further amid regulatory optimism.

MN Capital founder Michaël van de Poppe was bullish, saying:

“Big day today with the CLARITY Act vote. Might be a historical day for everyone involved in Crypto and could, very well, signal the start of a stronger cycle.”
Analyst Sharky predicts a muted immediate pump, with the real strong move coming “90 days later, when institutional money finally has legal clarity.”

Not all analysts were optimistic about the event, however, with trading resource Material Indicators saying the passing of the CLARITY Act is “somewhat baked-in to $BTC price,” adding:

“Passing it will likely deliver a knee-jerk reaction from the market that pumps price briefly, but like all narratives, that rally will fade.”
As Cointelegraph reported, some traders expect a quick move in Bitcoin price toward $90,000 following the CLARITY Act vote, supported by improving market conditions and easing selling pressure.

Analysts highlight key BTC price levels to watch

Bitcoin may have delivered an impressive bounce to $82,000 last week, but the bullish sentiment was dampened by resistance from the 200-day moving averages around this level.

The support at $78,000 remains key for bulls, representing the short-term holder realized price and the true market mean.

This coincides with the 21-week exponential moving average (green line), as highlighted by analyst Rekt Capital in the chart below, saying:

“Downside wicking below it would be fine as long as price ends the week with a weekly candle close above the EMA to confirm it as retested support.”

BTCUSD
weekly chart. Source: X/Rekt Capital

Bitcoin’s realized price by age cohorts reveals another major level of support sitting further down: the cost basis of the 1-week-to-1-month investor cohort at $76,900.

“The momentum of the ongoing rally has been driven largely by a wave of accumulation over the past 30 days,” Glassnode said in its latest Week Onchain newsletter, adding:

“This cohort's cost basis now sits at approximately $76.9K, forming the most immediate support floor in the short term.”

Bitcoin realized price by age. Source: Glassnode

On the upside, the cost basis of investors who accumulated BTC during the November 2025-February consolidation period at $86,900 represents the “most probable near-term resistance zone as these holders approach breakeven and face a growing incentive to distribute into strength,” the onchain data provider added.

Crypto trader and analyst Daan Crypto Trades said a break above $82,000 will see BTC rise to fill the CME gap at $84,000, eventually “continuing quite a lot higher” from that point.

BTCUSD
daily chart. Source: X/Daan Crypto Trades

As Cointelegraph reported, key support levels for the bulls were the 20-day EMA at $79,000 and the 50-day SMA at $74,000, while bears were expected to defend $84,000.
source: https://www.tradingview.com/news/cointelegraph:ea9cc79d6094b:0-analysts-are-watching-these-bitcoin-price-levels-ahead-of-clarity-act-vote/