Why Strategy's stock is outperforming bitcoin these days
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By Jules Rimmer
Michael Saylor's cryptocurrency vehicle, formerly known as MicroStrategy, has rallied by a third since the start of the Iran war
Strategy is outperforming bitcoin since the start of the Iran war, and bitcoin is outperforming gold.
Since the eve of the war in Iran, the price strength of bitcoin (BTCUSD) has surprised many investors with its 20% rally. Perhaps more eye-opening for many observers, though, is the 33% return delivered over that period by Strategy Inc. (MSTR), the largest holder of the cryptocurrency, with 815,000 coins in its wallet.
After touching an all-time high around $125,000 in October, bitcoin went into free fall, and its spectacular rally was matched by an equally dramatic decline. By the time hostilities commenced in the Middle East it had halved, and Michael Saylor's bitcoin vehicle suffered an even more vertiginous drop, from north of $450 last summer to a February trough of $106.
So, when risk appetite came suddenly under pressure as Israel and America started bombing Iran, why did Strategy perk up?
A clue may lie in its massive relative underperformance versus its erstwhile competitor for safe-haven flows: gold (GC00). In Bank of America's fund-manager survey for February, gold was revealed to be the most consensual and crowded long position among investors.
When the war began a fortnight later, however, and hedge funds rushed to not just deleverage their books but to de-gross them, gold slumped. Traders unwound pair trades where long positions in gold were offset by shorts in bitcoin. Simultaneously this triggered a major unwind in what investors refer to as the basis trade in bitcoin/Strategy, whereby funds like Jane Street were rumored to be long the cryptocurrency but short Michael Saylor's company.
Not everyone subscribes to this theory. Stephen Coltman, head of Macro at 21Shares, a provider of exchange-traded products focused on crypto, noted that while short interest in Strategy seems high at 11% of the free float, in historical terms it's not particularly elevated.
Coltman also makes the point that the basis trade in Strategy was popular when it was at a large premium to net asset value, or NAV, and Strategy was issuing common stock to purchase bitcoin. Since the market-to-net-asset-value, or mNAV, had dropped from almost three times to one, Executive Chairman Saylor changed tack and began issuing high-yielding preferred shares to acquire bitcoin.
Coltman thought the technical importance of holding the 60,000-70,000 range on bitcoin was more of a factor turning bitcoin sentiment positive.
Strategy's average cost of bitcoin is calculated around $75,500, so, clearly, it is sensitive to that price. Its profitability is fairly binary whether it shows a profit or a loss on its holdings. With bitcoin now moving higher and pulling away from that crucial level, sentiment among investors toward Strategy has improved accordingly.
In Wednesday's premarket trading Strategy, formerly known as MicroStrategy, was more than 6% higher, at around $174, and bitcoin was 4% better, at around $78,200.
-Jules Rimmer
This content was created by MarketWatch, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. MarketWatch is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.
source: https://www.tradingview.com/news/DJN_SN20260422008641:0/
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